UNCERTAINTY CURVE MODEL

Uncertainty curve model

The uncertainty curve model takes as a reference the values obtained in a heatmap and applied into project activities control matrix to determine the level of uncertainty reduction each finished milestone brings to the project

That means an addition to the control matrix on which the columns of uncertainty (-I) are added with their percentage contribution in reducing the uncertainty

To clarify these aspects is that the uncertainty curve model allows us to estimate the conditions of certainty that will have a project and also help us to determine a scheme of variable discount rates that facilitate further incorporation of operational risks of the project in a global conception


To clarify these aspects is that the uncertainty curve model allows us to estimate the conditions of certainty that will have a project and also help us to determine a scheme of variable discount rates that facilitate further incorporation of operational risks of the project in a global conception

The process

  • Activity control matrix generation
  • Heatmap construction
  • Uncertainty curve construction
  • Variable discount rate calculation from the uncertainty curve for generates the weighted NPV .